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LAZY BEAR EXPEDITIONS · CHURCHILL, MANITOBA

Aurora Watch / Guide Dashboard

Operational prototype · Not an aurora prediction or guest guarantee
● LIVE · 60s LOADING DATA
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NOAA · ESTIMATED PLANETARY Kp
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Awaiting NOAA data

Observation time unavailable
Trend: awaiting data
Kp is a three-hour geomagnetic index, updated with preliminary estimates every minute. Aurora is possible in Churchill at low Kp.
NOAA Kp chart ↗

Churchill · Live Sky Camera

16:9 camera view · adjustable crop
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Camera crop hides surrounding webpage elements where possible. Adjust Camera alignment if the video is not centred. If Explore.org changes its layout, the crop may need adjustment. If playback fails, the source may not permit embedding.
The LBE camera is not yet installed. A direct RTSP stream will need an HTTPS-compatible player or image endpoint before it can appear here. Camera links are not saved when the page closes.

Automated aurora activity watch

Awaiting observations
Solar-wind conditions are a general activity indicator. Churchill substorm timing requires local sky observations and preferably regional ground magnetometer data.
Waiting for first automatic assessment.

Automatically checks fresh solar-wind conditions every minute. Elevated activity potential is not a prediction of substorm onset; confirm with the live sky camera.

IMF Bz

Satellite: awaiting data
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nT · sustained southward (negative) can favour activity

IMF Bt

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nT · total interplanetary magnetic field

Solar wind speed

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km/s · upstream solar wind

Proton density

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particles/cm³

Churchill sky

Visual confirmation required
Camera and local guide observations are separate from satellite measurements.

Bz trend · last observations

Solar-wind data from NOAA SWPC. UTC timestamps; data may lag.

Fort Churchill ground magnetometer · FCC

Official station available · live connection pending

Natural Resources Canada operates the Fort Churchill (FCC) observatory and publishes a last-24-hours, one-minute magnetic-field table. This is a local ground measurement, unlike GOES. The official page provides X (northward), Y (eastward) and Z (downward) magnetic variations.

View current Fort Churchill measurements ↗

The FCC feed is not yet connected to the automated watch. Public availability does not establish permission for LBE commercial reuse, browser cross-origin access or guaranteed low latency. NRCan's published conditions ask commercial users to contact Geomagnetism-Info@NRCan-RNCan.gc.ca. Do not interpret the NOAA-only activity watch as a local substorm alert.

GOES satellite magnetic field · regional context

GOES measures magnetic conditions in space, not directly over Churchill. Use this trend as supporting context, not as a Churchill substorm detector.

Guide decision checklist

  • Check cloud cover and actual sky conditions at the viewing site.
  • Look for sustained negative Bz and changing solar-wind conditions.
  • Use GOES trends only as context; they cannot confirm a substorm over Churchill.
  • Check local camera or direct observation before advising guests.
  • Never treat a single spike or Kp value as a guaranteed onset.
Prototype for operational evaluation only. Fort Churchill (FCC) ground measurements are available from NRCan but are not yet ingested. A Churchill-specific substorm alert model requires approved low-latency access, local sky observations and validation against historical events. GOES alone cannot provide local timing. Automated solar-wind screening is enabled; no timed substorm prediction or guest alerting is implemented.